User blog:Ajaxcupseries/Championship Deep Dive Heading into Final Quarter of 2022

The Fallon Corner - May 2022

12 races down, and only a quarter of the season remains in the 2022 Ajax Cup campaign with yet another incredible championship battle on our hands.

Six drivers currently sit within a full race of the points lead, with four of those drivers within 12 points of each other and only four races left!

While last year around this time it was basically a done deal that Randle Woods would win the title, this season this championship battle is FAR from over, so let’s take a look at who the main title contenders for the 2022 Ajax Cup Championship are heading into the closing stages of this season:

Main Championship Contenders
1) #3 Greg Healey (Points Leader)

2022 Season Stats: 2 wins, 4 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 2 poles, 157 laps led, 1 DNF

If there’s anyone else besides Jimmy Hood who was absolutely ecstatic to see Todd Kidd and Diego Orkedi tangle on the last lap of last week’s Northern 200 and throw away top three finishes, it was most CERTAINLY Greg Healey. The newly minted two time father went from entering this weekend’s race at West Virginia 9 points behind Todd Kidd had Kidd held onto win that event to extending his margin over Kidd by one point after the wreck happened.

The problem for this #3 team however is that they will NOT win this championship if they continue to run the way they have to start the second half of 2022.

Outside of his victory at Blu-Ray, Healey has finished 9th, 11th, and 12th through the third quarter of the season, results that would have certainly cost the 25 year old the points lead if Todd Kidd didn’t consistently blow opportunities to capitalize on Healey’s struggles as of late.

With only one more short track date remaining on the calendar, Snoots Enterprises HAS to be on their game these next two weeks especially at a couple of high speed, aerodynamically sensitive tracks in West Virginia and Computer Motor Speedway.

This #3 camp specifically has been incredibly hit or miss at these types of venues, and it was this exact stretch of races that cost Healey the championship to Diego Orkedi back in 2020.

Make no mistake about it though, I still feel like Healey is still in control of his own destiny, and as long as he and his guys can flawlessly execute these final four weeks this is still the 25 year old’s title to lose.

2) Todd Kidd (2nd in points, -4)

2022 Season Stats: 1 win, 4 top 5’s, 7 top 10’s, 1 pole, 261 laps led, 2 DNF’s

If Todd Kidd is unable to come back and win this 2022 Ajax Cup title, he’ll certainly look back on this year down the road as “the one that got away”.

With the points leader having a rather subpar 8.25 average finish throughout the month of May so far, you’d certainly think over the course of the past four weeks at three tracks Kidd has won at before he’d be able to run away with this championship right?

While his 11th place effort in last week’s Northern 200 you could argue was not his fault, the 8th, 11th, and 6th place finishes the three weeks beforehand most certainly were.

Sure, on paper those don’t necessarily look like awful results, but when you’re competing for a championship you need ELITE results throughout the entire season to get the job done. This #9 camp has not scored a top 5 finish since the Windows 300, and with the guys behind him and Healey in front of him in points putting up the results they have as of late that simply isn’t gonna cut it.

Point blank, Kidd needs to go out and WIN, ideally multiple times, over the final four races if he wants to win this championship. The 26 year old is in a position where he does still control his own destiny, but if he continues to put up subpar results he’ll find himself needing help to stay alive in this cut throat championship chase in a hurry.

3) Cameron Atwood (3rd in points, -9)

2022 Season Stats: 6 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 2 poles, 172 laps led, 2 DNF’s

While Cameron Atwood has yet to win in his last 37 starts dating back to 2020, there’s no doubt after Saturday’s Northern 200 you HAVE to take him and this team seriously as championship contenders.

To drive from dead last on the starting grid to a runner up finish in a backup car is impressive enough in itself, but to do it at The Stoneyard, a place where tires go away almost immediately and it’s almost impossible to pass?

THAT’S a championship caliber performance right there.

Heading into the final quarter of the season, don’t sleep on this #17 camp based on the way they’ve preformed on the tracks remaining on the schedule earlier in the campaign.

A 7th place effort at West Virginia back in March after starting outside pole and a 4th place result in the Windows 300 after leading the opening 43 laps from the pole show that CJ Barrymore Racing has gotten their high speed track program back in business, and don’t forget Atwood also won the pole at Belltown and led 129 laps before an uncontrolled tire penalty basically cost him the race.

Either way, even if Cameron Atwood can’t bring home the Ajax Cup championship on June 20th, he is certainly living proof of what a difference good equipment and a season can make in a young driver’s career.

4) Diego Orkedi (4th in points, -12)

2022 Season Stats: 1 win, 7 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 1 pole, 379 laps led, 4 DNF’s

Over the past couple years Diego Orkedi has become a streaky driver to say the least. When things are going right for this camp, Orkedi looks borderline UNSTOPPABLE on a weekly basis and shows why he’s the highest paid driver in the sport. However, when things go wrong for this #22 bunch…..they also seem to go wrong in a BIG way.

That being said, if there’s anything to take away from the first three quarters of 2022 so far, it is to NEVER count out the three time champion no matter the circumstances.

Love him or hate him, Orkedi has developed an unmatched confidence in himself and his abilities that he can do no wrong and that when things do go wrong, its everyone else’s fault but his own. While he’s certainly found himself in plenty of hot water throughout the modern era behaving this way, the results he’s also put up in that time span show that his approach clearly seems to be working.

You’ll never catch the $96 million dollar man doubting his own abilities, and this is the exact reason he’s still alive and well in the championship hunt despite an astonishing 4 DNF’s in the opening 6 races of the campaign and sitting as low as 20th in points at one point this season!

Five top 5 results in the last six weeks along with 379 laps led over the course of the last five races show that Orkedi Bros Racing has finally figured out the new Mustang after some struggles with speed to open the year, and with neither Healey or Kidd willing to step up their game to pull away with this championship plus the inexperience of Cameron Atwood in a championship battle as tight as this, don’t be surprised if its Orkedi that ends up with title number #4 come June 20th at Belltown.

Still in the Hunt
5) Norm Lester (5th in points, -17)

2022 Season Stats: 2 wins, 4 top 5’s, 7 top 10’s, 212 laps led, 2 DNF’s

While I’m certainly not willing to write off my preseason pick to win the championship so fast despite a rough past few weeks, its certainly safe to say that Norm Lester’s championship chances have dipped dramatically from what they were even heading into Blu-Ray a couple weeks back.

The problem with this #19 team is that they haven’t led any laps since the Windows 300, and it seems that the momentum this team had to start the season or even after the All-Star Race is completely gone after back to back 19th and 13th place efforts at Blu-Ray and Michigan respectively.

Even if all three of the young guns sitting in the top 3 in the standings collapse in the closing stages of 2022, you KNOW Diego Orkedi is going to be the one to take advantage of that which is why its rather hard to picture Lester as your Ajax Cup champion this season despite the incredible first half of the campaign the New Orleans native put together.

Either way, I think its safe to say the 35 year old certainly has a lot more left in the tank than we all thought now in a competitive ride that’s for sure.

6) Nick Orkedi (6th in points, -21)

2022 Season Stats: 1 win, 6 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 19 laps led, 2 DNF’s

I’m just gonna throw it out there right now - Nick Orkedi will NOT win the 2022 Ajax Cup championship.

Yeah, it is rather harsh to dismiss a past champion of the sport who’s still within a full race of the points leader with just four races left to go, and while Orkedi has found speed as of late this season, its far from the elite level speed he used to have on a yearly basis like his younger brother.

Outside of Michigan, a track the 2016 Ajax Cup champion basically owns at this point, this #2 team has not led a single lap this season. Just let that sink in for a moment.

Its clear that the sheer talent of the 32 year old has been able to keep this car in borderline title contention over the course of the past couple seasons, but the focus over at Orkedi Bros Racing has been much more on Diego it seems with Nick now struggling just to keep up.

Maybe I’ll be proven wrong on this one, but unless the Belltown native comes out and dominates West Virginia I’ll stick to my thought that his title bid is pretty much unofficially dead at this point.

Needs a Miracle
7) Ryan Dixon (7th in points, -28)

2022 Season Stats: 1 win, 3 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 23 laps led, 2 DNF’s

Even with this season’s Ajax 200 winner posing as a title contender the first half of the season, I think we all pretty much knew that was a facade, and that eventually this team’s true colors would show which would bring them back down to Earth.

After the Windows 300, that’s pretty much exactly what happened.

While it certainly hasn’t been a bad season for Ryan Dixon by any means, in this sport especially with how tough the competition is in the Cup Series these days, you HAVE to be an elite level driver to win an Ajax Cup championship, and as we’ve seen the past few years Dixon just isn’t that and most likely never will be at this stage of his career.

A couple high speed ovals upcoming in West Virginia and Computer Motor Speedway will likely be the final nail in the coffin for the Australian’s title bid, but since he is only 28 points back technically he still has a shot which is why he’s included on this list.

8) Chris Barrymore (8th in points, -30)

2022 Season Stats: 2 wins, 4 top 5’s, 6 top 10’s, 1 pole, 178 laps led, 4 DNF’s

Despite a new contract and two victories in the first five races of the season, yet again its inconsistency that has reared its ugly head and thwarted another championship bid from Chris Barrymore.

The part that stings the most for the 24 year old has to be that one could argue all four of his DNF’s this season were not his fault, just being in the wrong place at the wrong time in every single instance.

That being said, even sitting 8th in points 30 markers behind Greg Healey with only four races left, don’t be surprised if the $44 million dollar man makes up a TON of ground in the standings over the course of the next two weeks at both West Virginia and Computer Motor Speedway, two of his best tracks.

This is why Barrymore is in the “needs a miracle category”, because if he can make up some points in those next couple races and get some help at Ajax Superspeedway….who knows, he could have a shot come June 20th at Belltown.

The Verdict
While the path to the Ajax Cup championship is FAR less cut and dry as it was at this time last season, its a lot more simple than you may think.

If Chevy’s brightest young, highly paid superstars in Greg Healey and Todd Kidd can return to the elite levels of performance they’ve shown flashes of this season, this will be a battle between those two to determine which one of them brings home the manufacturer’s first Ajax Cup title since Jimmy Hood in 2017.

However, if they slip up at any point over the course of the past four weeks, expect Cameron Atwood, Diego Orkedi, and Norm Lester to be right there and ready to capitalize.