User blog:Ajaxcupseries/Ford Development Program Modern Era Success - Equipment or Drivers?

By: Charles Fallon - The Fallon Corner (2021)

Ever since the 2016 season, the Ford Development Program has taken over the Craftsman Series by storm. 3 driver’s championships from Ryan Dixon, Chris Barrymore, and Henry Brady, 29 victories including the 2019 season where the team won 80% of the races, and many more top 5’s and top 10’s during that time span.

Out of the 23 current active full time Ajax Cup drivers, 6 of them at one point ran full time for the Ford Development Program in the Craftsman Series. Those six drivers have combined for 29 Craftsman career victories, 3 Craftsman ROTY Awards, and 4 Craftsman Driver Championships.

However, in the Cup Series those same six drivers have amassed only 11 Cup wins, and while they have 3 ROTY Awards a lot of that is due to lack of rookie competition they faced in those years. The most damning statistic has to be that only one of these drivers is in the top 9 in points, while four of them sit 18th-21st in points at the All-Star break in the 2021 season!

So what gives?

How is this dominant Craftsman Series program that churns out race winners and championship contenders on a yearly basis seemingly so bad at preparing these talents for the next level?

That’s what we’ll be delving into driver by driver on this week’s edition of The Fallon Corner.

Chris Barrymore | Age: 23
Craftsman Series Achievements: 10 Craftsman wins, 2016 Craftsman Series ROTY, 2017 Craftsman Series Champion

Ajax Cup Achievements: 1 Ajax Cup win, 2017 Ajax Cup Series ROTY

2021 Ajax Cup Stats: 1 top 5, 5 top 10’s, 51 laps led, 6th in points

Chris Barrymore might be the most interesting case to delve into when it comes to the former Ford Development Program prospects. Has his Cup career been a disappointment so far? Absolutely you can say that. After what we saw out of him winning in his 3rd career start at The Stoneyard back in 2016, and even in his rookie year in Cup in 2017 I think we all expected him to be a title contender and to have way more than 1 career win by year 5 of his Cup career.

However, people keep seeming to forget that this kid is only 23 years old. It took Todd Kidd until his age 23 season to score his first Cup victory, and same for Greg Healey so Barrymore already has both of them beat in that category. And these are the so called “new” stars of the sport the youth movement has produced that are supposed to take over the sport in the next 3-5 years.

This season Barrymore has been right behind both of those guys sitting 6th in points, and once again came close to snapping that 39 race winless drought at West Virginia, leading a race high 51 laps and finishing 2nd to Randle Woods. That 2nd career win is coming very soon for Barrymore, and when it does the narratives about him will change awfully fast just watch.

He’s proven over the past couple weeks how much he’s developed with Craftsman victories and back to back 8th place finishes in Cup at a couple of his worst tracks in Belltown and the Streets of Computerville, which tells me he isn’t far off from putting it all together and becoming the young star Ford hoped he’d become to counter Chevy with Healey + Kidd and Toyota with Jared Ayers.

Ryan Dixon | Age: 26
Craftsman Series Achievements: 7 Craftsman wins, 2016 Craftsman Series Champion

Ajax Cup Achievements: 4 Ajax Cup wins

2021 Ajax Cup Stats: 2 top 5’s, 4 top 10’s, 53 laps led, 10th in points

I think there’s one word that perfectly describes the driver Ryan Dixon has become at the Ajax Cup level: decent. Could he take the next step and become one of the sport’s top drivers one day? Sure. But at this point in his career I think he’s pretty much solidified himself as a solid lock for a 6th-10th place points slot each year.

That being said, I certainly don’t think he’s a bad driver by any means. He’s pretty much proven with three straight top 6 points finishes carrying CJ Barrymore Racing on his back that he’s more than capable of being consistent. I just think he’s a tier below the Randle Woods’, Diego Orkedi’s, Greg Healey’s, Todd Kidd’s and Nick Orkedi’s of the sport. And overall, if we go by the “what have you done for me lately” way of thinking, he’s the best prospect the Ford Development Program has developed into the Cup level.

Not bad for an Aussie if I do say so myself.

Caleb Henderson Jr. | Age: 28
Craftsman Series Achievements: 5 Craftsman wins, 2014 Craftsman Series Champion

Ajax Cup Achievements: 6 Ajax Cup wins, 2015 Ajax Cup Series ROTY, 2017, 2018 Windows 300 Winner

2021 Ajax Cup Stats: 1 top 10, 18th in points

Where do I even begin with this segment. Remember the days where the son of series commissioner Caleb Henderson was a championship contender and thought to be the “pioneer” of this ASCA youth movement? Remember when he was a race win contender week in and week out, and it was a shocker to see him outside the top 10? Remember when he became the first driver in ASCA history to win multiple Windows 300’s?

Yeah, it seems as if those days were forever ago now.

Its hard to call a 6 time Cup winner and multi time Windows 300 winner a bust, but to say his tenure at CJ Barrymore Racing will end rather unceremoniously is an understatement. If you would’ve told me Henderson would be currently without a drive for the 2022 season after 2017 I would’ve called you nuts! But the ASCA has proven time and time again that it is a cruel, results driven business. And when you ask yourself what has Henderson Jr done lately, there’s his two random dominant wins at Belltown and West Virginia from 2019 and 2020 respectively, and a whole lot of mediocre performances besides that.

The last 9 races of 2021 will be the make or break point on Henderson’s career. If he has anything left in the tank at age 28, he better show it now before he ends up unemployed heading into next year.

And boy oh boy, what a story that would be.

Devin Smith (R) | Age: 22
Craftsman Series Achievements: 4 Craftsman wins, 2020 Craftsman Series ROTY

Ajax Cup Achievements: N/A

2021 Ajax Cup Stats: 1 top 5, 2 top 10’s, 1 pole, 41 laps led, 19th in points

Only 7 races into Devin Smith’s Cup career, at this point it’d be extremely unwise to make any vast judgments on how his ASCA career will play out. Despite how good he looked in Craftsman last year as a rookie, remember that this kid literally only has one season of ASCA experience prior to being promoted to replace one of the most underrated drivers in my opinion in ASCA history in Dan Rodgers.

That being said, I think I’d be remiss to say I wasn’t at least a little concerned with how Smith has preformed to this point in his rookie year. While his three veteran teammates are atop the points standings, 5th, and 7th in points and you’re below a Revolution Racing and two Dexter Andrews Motorsports cars in the standings there is a problem there.

And when you look at Smith’s Cup crashes this year, a lot of them have been his fault. The opening lap DNF at West Virginia obviously wasn’t, but his crash while leading and attempting to block Ryan Dixon was on him, his crash getting onto pit road too hot in the Ajax 200 and ramming into Nick Orkedi was definitely on him, his crash at Belltown where he failed at a slide job on Todd Kidd was on him, and so was his qualifying crash last week at the Streets of Computerville.

Its concerning to see Smith make THIS many mistakes in such a short amount of time, but when you consider his lack of ASCA experience it makes sense. There’s certainly going to be some growing pains until Smith gets more starts under his belt, but I wouldn’t call him a total lost cause like I’d say these next two drivers are.

Henry Brady | Age: 25
Craftsman Series Achievements: 2 Craftsman wins, 2018 Craftsman Series ROTY, 2019 Craftsman Series Champion

Ajax Cup Achievements: 2020 Ajax Cup Series ROTY

2021 Ajax Cup Stats: 1 top 10, 20th in points

I hate to say it, but if this continues Henry Brady could easily go down as the biggest bust of the ASCA’s Modern Era. Granted, I didn’t think he was anything special in the Craftsman Series, but that he was moreso elevated by weak competition and driving the best car in the series at the time. When you consider that even in his championship winning season, Brady scored more points than Shane Park in his title campaign the next year despite running four less races, I think that shows you how weak the title battle really was in 2019 despite all four title contenders now racing in Cup.

That being said, you can’t take away his 2 Craftsman victories, his ROTY award, or his Craftsman championship. Which is why when he entered the Cup Series last year, many people thought Grant Von Duvedel was the only thing separating that 3rd Orkedi Bros Racing car from being a championship contender.

Boy were they wrong.

While you can use the equipment excuse all you want to, if the equipment was so bad how did Brady manage to bring home a 6th place effort at West Virginia? Clearly the equipment is there, its just a matter of putting it all together on a weekly basis for this 12 camp.

Look, even I excused his rookie year as a wash because all rookies go thru growing pains and slumps like that. However, when you have a bad rookie season you CANNOT afford to have a sophomore slump. Say what you want about Doug Bowden and his lack of performance so far this season, but at least we’ve seen him come close to winning a few races and scoring top 5’s in the past. At this point a good run for Brady would be staying on the lead lap.

Just like with Henderson Jr, the last 7 races of 2021 will be CRUCIAL for saving Brady’s ASCA career. Unlike Barrymore and Smith, Brady doesn’t even have the age excuse as he’s older than both of them. Its put up or shut up time if the Maryland native wants to escape going down as a massive ASCA Bust.

Rob Buddy | Age: 26
Craftsman Series Achievements: 1 Craftsman win

Ajax Cup Achievements: N/A

2021 Ajax Cup Stats: 21st in points

The Homie Rob is a great example of be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it. The Ford Development Program knew that Buddy probably needed one more year of seasoning in Craftsman back in 2019, as while he had the dominant victory at Blu-Ray, he just wasn’t quite as consistent as his teammate Henry Brady which showed in the end of season points standings. Ultimately, it appears that handing Brady the open Orkedi Bros Racing seat may not have been the smartest decision in hindsight, but at the time Brady was the hottest prospect in the ASCA and the no brainer choice for it.

Because of this, Buddy jumped at the first opportunity he got to leave the FDP for a third Cup car at Dexter Andrews Motorsports in 2020. Andrews was convinced he had a “special talent” on his hands with Buddy, and was so desperate to give him a seat that he decided to open a team he barely was able to piece together the funds and sponsorship for when his other two cars were already on the downswing.

Hmmm…..I wonder how that turned out.

Buddy’s rookie season was an absolute nightmare as a result with three times as many DNF’s (6) as top 10 finishes (2), and a disastrous 20th place points finish. The team’s original primary sponsor for the year, Click and Close Mortagages, slashed their sponsorship down from 16 races to 4 races last minute, forcing STP to step up and sponsor the rest. However, STP was so dissatisfied with the team’s 2020 performance that they decided to massively scale back heading into 2021 as well.

The 26 year old has somehow managed to regress this year with 4 DNF’s in the opening 7 races and 0 top 10 finishes to show for it. Buddy announced after The Stoneyard he’d be leaving the team to pursue a “better opportunity”, but in all honesty who the hell would want to sign this guy right now?

I have nothing against Rob Buddy the person, he has a great personality and its a shame the ASCA doesn’t get to see it more often because he runs 18th every week. Rob Buddy the driver is the guy I take issue with. Its one thing to demand better when you have the pedigree to back it up, but remind me again how many times Buddy has won in the ASCA?

Honestly I’ll be stunned if he finds a drive anywhere in the sport in 2022.

Final Verdict
If you’ve read this far, first off congratulations, and secondly you’re probably wondering why its taken me so long to announce which side of the fence I’m on here.

Is it really the equipment or drivers that make the Ford Development Program so successful?

And to be honest, it’s both. I know that’s the boring answer here, but let me explain what I mean by that.

I don’t think there’s any denying the Ford Development Program has always had great equipment. However, when you look at who their drivers were when they first started having success from 2014-2017 in Caleb Henderson Jr, Ryan Dixon and Chris Barrymore and the Cup success those three have enjoyed, its obvious those guys were great drivers by how dominant they were in this great equipment. Remember that all three of those guys beat Randle Woods straight up for their Craftsman titles back when Woods used to run Craftsman full time, an impressive feat in its own right.

When you look at guys like Henry Brady and Rob Buddy however, I think it definitely comes down to equipment carrying those two to levels of hype they didn’t deserve. The FDP was so OP as a whole in 2019 that if you didn’t win a race there was something wrong with you. It was honestly incredible seeing how fast their cars were week in and week out compared to everyone else, it wasn’t even close. And is it any coincidence this all happened once Randle Woods retired from Craftsman competition?

I think the jury is still out on Devin Smith, and on the new breed of prospects Ford has in the pipeline such as Carson Schmidt, Felix Anderson, and Alex Dennis. Who knows, in 2026 I could be writing an article writing about how these guys have become the new stars of the sport, or how they are all time busts.

The ASCA is strange, that’s all I can say.