User blog:Ajaxcupseries/Championship Deep Dive Heading Into Final Quarter of 2021

The Fallon Corner - By: Charles Fallon (2021)

Its hard to believe we already only have four races remaining in the 2021 Ajax Cup season considering Speedweeks feel like it happened just yesterday!

These past 12 races have gone by with the snap of a finger, and now here we are with just four events on the calendar. While Randle Woods has absolutely dominated this season, leading the championship every race since his win in West Virginia back in race 2, this title fight is FAR from over.

In this edition of The Fallon Corner, we’ll take a look at who the real championship contenders and pretenders are at this point in the season, and who has the best shot to dethrone Randle Woods from the top step of the title standings.

In His Own Bracket
2021 Season Stats: 2 wins, 8 top 5’s, 11 top 10’s, 2 poles, 436 laps led, 1 DNF
 * 1) 18 Randle Woods (Points Leader)

Despite having 2 less wins at this point in the season than he had in his 2019 championship winning season, Woods has more top 5’s, more top 10’s, more poles, more laps led, AND less DNF’s through 12 races this year compared to 2 years ago. This year has been Woods’ best as an ASCA competitor after arguably one of his worst just a season ago.

Even with Diego Orkedi’s career high 4 wins and Todd Kidd’s 2 wins in the last 4 weeks, Woods has had a double digit points lead since Denver back in September. And heading to two aero sensitive, high speed tracks that the 18 team and Michael White Racing have excelled at throughout the season all Woods has to do is what he’s done all year long and that 2nd championship in 3 years is his.

Championship Contender
2021 Season Stats: 2 wins, 6 top 5’s, 10 top 10’s, 1 pole, 182 laps led, 2 DNF’s
 * 1) 9 Todd Kidd (2nd in points, -22)

Two years ago around this time we were still wondering when Todd Kidd would win his first Ajax Cup race. Fast forward two years later, and we’re now having serious discussions about Kidd bringing home his first Ajax Cup title.

The problem? Randle Woods is having a historically good year leading the points.

While Kidd has been red hot as of late winning 2 of the last 4 weeks and finishing no worse than 8th since his DNF at Belltown at the start of October, Woods has finished no worse than 6th since his 20th place DNF in the Windows 300. However, if Woods’ historic season for some reason falls off the rails in the final 4 races of the year, the California Kidd is right there, ready to pounce.

Still (Mathematically) In The Hunt
2021 Season Stats: 6 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 1 pole, 47 laps led, 2 DNF’s
 * 1) 48 Brynn Rennerd (3rd in points, -38)

As he always seems to do things, Brynn Rennerd has quietly worked his way up from 9th in points after his 2nd DNF of the season at the Streets of Computerville all the way up to 3rd and a dark horse title contender if crap hits the fan for the top 2. Rennerd has been absolutely red hot since the Windows 300, putting up a 4.2 average finish and 4 top 5’s in the past 5 races in that span.

However, despite all this the Arizona native still is nearly two full races back behind Randle Woods in the standings, meaning it’ll take a full blown collapse from the #18 team for Rennerd to even have a puncher’s chance for the title. Rennerd has had arguably one of the best years of his career despite still not having won a race, but it takes great years to win an Ajax Cup title.

2021 Season Stats: 1 win, 4 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 1 pole, 206 laps led, 1 DNF
 * 1) 3 Greg Healey (4th in points, -41)

While Todd Kidd couldn’t afford to total his primary car in practice leading up to the Northern 200 and come from the back, Greg Healey REALLY couldn’t afford to do that and it showed on Saturday night with a 12th place finish.

Still 4th in points, Healey now sits 41 markers back from Randle Woods and needs a miracle if he wants a chance at the championship. While last year Snoots Enterprises was unstoppable at high speed, aero sensitive tracks like West Virginia and Computer Motor Speedway, this year they’ve been solid, but solid most certainly isn’t gonna cut it.

Healey has proven at least that his 2020 breakout year was far from a fluke, and I expect him to once again be a title contender in 2022.

2021 Season Stats: 4 wins, 4 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 1 pole, 323 laps led, 3 DNF’s
 * 1) 22 Diego Orkedi (5th in points, -46)

While Diego Orkedi has put up a career high in wins thru only 12 races in 2021, this might arguably the worst year of his career since 2014 in terms of consistency which is what wins championships.

Even with a league leading 4 wins, Orkedi has had zero top 5’s outside of those wins, and only 8 top 10’s which makes those 3 DNF’s hurt a lot more than they did last year. The #22 camp has notably been incredibly mediocre on high speed aero sensitive tracks, highlighted by Orkedi’s shockingly bad 15th place finish multiple laps down in the Windows 300.

While last year should’ve taught me to not do this, I’m gonna do it anyways. Diego Orkedi will NOT win the 2021 Ajax Cup Championship.

He belongs in the championship contender category simply because of his track record with the 3 titles and he’s only 5 points behind Greg Healey, but this team is simply way too inconsistent especially at these high speed tracks to make a run at it. Add in Orkedi making inexcusable rookie mistakes for the first time in forever like he did on Saturday night and I think you can stick a fork in this bunch.

Needs A Miracle
2021 Season Stats: 1 win, 3 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 119 laps led, 3 DNF’s
 * 1) 21 Chris Barrymore (6th in points, -58)

I’m gonna include Chris Barrymore in this because if everything completely falls apart for some unknown reason for the top 5 in points, the 23 year old now seems poised to pounce.

Coming off his first Ajax Cup triumph since 2018 last Saturday night, Barrymore and this #21 team have a lot of positive momentum heading into a stretch of races they did extremely well in last year. The son of CJ Barrymore led 51 laps at West Virginia earlier in the season before finishing 2nd to Randle Woods, and we all know his track record at Computer Motor Speedway so look out for this group to make up a good haul of points these next couple weeks.

I highly doubt it’ll be enough to win him a title considering how far back he is, but you never know in this sport.

2021 Season Stats: 5 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 2 poles, 44 laps led, 3 DNF’s
 * 1) 20 Jared Ayers (7th in points, -60)

Its hard to really say whether or not this season has been a solid one or a disappointment for Michael White’s successor.

While this 20 bunch certainly has to be disappointed they haven’t won a race yet in 2021, they also haven’t had a terrible year by any stretch. 5 top 5’s is the 4th most of any driver this year, tied with Nick Orkedi, and sweeping the road course poles is a pretty big accomplishment in itself.

However, a championship? That’ll probably have to wait till next year at this point.

Verdict
At this point, the path to the 2021 Ajax Cup championship is simple.

As long as Randle Woods holds serve and keeps putting up results, he will cruise to his 2nd title with ease.

HOWEVER, if Woods slips up in the final quarter of the season, there’s 6 drivers who are hungry and very capable of snatching this championship away from him.